Winterlücke
Illustration, AI-generated: Rows of solar panels on a snowy alpine slope in the morning sun, with a sea of fog below

Idea 1

Build solar deliberately too big

Solar panels have become cheap. Why not build so many that they cover the winter too, and simply not use the surplus in summer?

The problem: in December, a roof on the Swiss Plateau delivers only 1.9 percent of its annual output.17

So if you want to cover the winter with solar, you must build many times what is needed in summer. Facades and plants in the Alps help: they are mounted steeply, often sit above the fog, and snow reflects extra light. In December, an alpine plant delivers around 4 times as much as a roof on the Swiss Plateau.1113

December, roof on the Plateau
17 kWh
per kW of capacity
December, alpine plant
74 kWh
per kW of capacity
Potential of all roofs
50 TWh
per year, plus 17 TWh on facades8

Try it yourself

The starting point is the year 2050: all nuclear plants are shut down, and consumption rises as the federal government expects. Build solar until the winter imports disappear.

50 GW
Potential of all suitable roofs: 56 GW
today 9.5 GW
4.0 GW
Target of the Solar Express law: 2 TWh, around 1.4 GW

Facades 10.0 GW, Wind 6.0 TWh, Roof cost 1’200 CHF/kW, Rate 3.0 %

Imports in winter
0.0 TWh
Guideline in the law: at most 5 TWh
Solar power that goes unused
59 %
33.6 TWh of 57.3 TWh
Cost per kWh of solar used
26.8 ct.
Investment of 95 bn CHF for 288 km² of modules
What the solar plants could deliver and how much of it is used
  • Used
  • Could have been generated, unused
WinterWinter0246810TWhJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
The whole electricity year in this scenario
  • Run-of-river plants
  • Waste, wood, biogas
  • Wind
  • Solar, used
  • Storage lakes
  • Solar, unused
  • Consumption
WinterWinter0481216TWhJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

Consumption in 2050 as in the federal Energy Perspectives: 68.7 TWh per year. All nuclear plants are shut down. Above the consumption line: surplus that is exported or curtailed.

Compared with the expansion under the Electricity Act, winter imports fall by 5.5 TWh. This costs 2.3 bn CHF more per year, or 42.3 ct. per kWh of imports avoided.

It can be done.

With almost all suitable roofs, some of the facades, more alpine plants and a little more wind, Switzerland can do without winter imports. Around 59 percent of the solar power then goes unused.

It is not cheap.

Each kilowatt hour of solar power that is used then costs 26.8 ct. instead of 11.1 ct., because the unused ones are paid for too. Each kWh of imports avoided costs around 42.3 ct.. Imported power cost around 12 centimes in the winter of 2025.35

With wind, it is cheaper.

Wind turbines deliver two thirds of their power in winter.33 A mix with more wind and slightly less solar closes the gap for around 22.8 ct. per kWh of imports avoided.

What happens to the power nobody needs?

Nothing bad. The inverter, the device between the panel and the grid, moves the panels away from their best operating point. The panels then deliver less power. The light they do not turn into electricity becomes heat.

  • A fully curtailed panel gets a good 5 °C warmer in the sun.19
  • As a result, it ages slightly faster. For the Swiss climate, we estimate at most 0.1 percent extra per year, against a normal 0.5 percent. There are no Swiss measurements on this yet.
  • Curtailment is already everyday practice: grid operators may curtail up to 3 percent of annual output without compensation.17 Since 2026, new plants feed in at most 70 percent of their capacity.18
Output of a solar panel, depending on voltage
0100200300400500Watts01020304050Voltage in voltsBest pointcurtailed
Panel delivers
181 W instead of 453 W
Voltage
48.6 V instead of 42.2 V
Panel warmer by
around 3.3 °C

Simplified curve of a 450-watt panel in full sun. For illustration.

A large flat roof covered with solar panels, with green meadows of eastern Switzerland behind it
A large roof in eastern Switzerland. Large plants today cost 660 to 1’100 francs per kW, a single-family house around 2’500. Photo: Cleanfix Reinigungssysteme AG, CC BY-SA 4.0

What is electricity in summer actually worth?

Almost nothing, at least around midday. Solar plants all over Europe are already pushing the price down. In June 2025, electricity on the exchange cost an average of 0.6 centimes per kWh around midday, and in 77 hours the price was even negative. In winter, electricity costs 1.3 to 1.6 times as much as in summer.35 So curtailing loses little.

Swiss wholesale price 2025
  • Average of all hours
  • Midday, 11 am to 3 pm
051015ct./kWhJanuary 2025: average 12.8 ct., midday 12.3 ct., 0 hours with a negative priceJanFebruary 2025: average 13.9 ct., midday 12.8 ct., 0 hours with a negative priceFebMarch 2025: average 11.0 ct., midday 7.5 ct., 11 hours with a negative priceMar11 hApril 2025: average 7.9 ct., midday 2.7 ct., 63 hours with a negative priceApr63 hMay 2025: average 6.6 ct., midday 1.2 ct., 86 hours with a negative priceMay86 hJune 2025: average 5.9 ct., midday 0.6 ct., 77 hours with a negative priceJun77 hJuly 2025: average 8.5 ct., midday 5.7 ct., 7 hours with a negative priceJul7 hAugust 2025: average 7.4 ct., midday 3.0 ct., 44 hours with a negative priceAug44 hSeptember 2025: average 9.0 ct., midday 6.7 ct., 15 hours with a negative priceSep15 hOctober 2025: average 10.0 ct., midday 8.3 ct., 0 hours with a negative priceOctNovember 2025: average 10.9 ct., midday 10.6 ct., 0 hours with a negative priceNovDecember 2025: average 10.7 ct., midday 10.7 ct., 0 hours with a negative priceDecnegative:

Day-ahead exchange, Swiss bidding zone, monthly average. Red: number of hours with a negative price.35